How to Spot a Lowball Offer

We've seen the same handful of tactics show up in lowball offers for as long as we've been in this business. None of them require a lawyer to spot — they just require reading past the headline number.

A mailer or a phone offer landing out of nowhere isn't automatically a lowball, and plenty of buyers in this basin operate straight. But the volume of unsolicited offers going out to Bakken mineral owners has created some patterns worth knowing, especially for owners who don't have a production or engineering background to check the math against.

Here's what we look for, having sat on the other side of this negotiation through the producing record.

A Number With No Explanation Behind It

A serious offer should be able to point to something — your decimal interest, recent statement history, decline stage, current commodity pricing. If an offer arrives as a flat figure with no reference to your specific tract, and the buyer can't or won't explain how they got there when you ask, that's worth treating with real caution. It doesn't automatically mean the number is unfair, but it means you have no way to check it.

We'd rather see a lower number we can verify against our own statements than a higher number with no math behind it, because at least the first one tells us something true about our interest.

Pressure to Sign Quickly

Deadlines that expire in a few days, or language suggesting the offer will drop if you don't respond fast, are a common pressure tactic. Mineral values don't move on a 48-hour clock — commodity prices and well performance shift over weeks and months, not days. A legitimate buyer has no real reason to rush you past the point of getting a second opinion, and most understand that comparing offers is a normal part of the process.

Offers That Don't Distinguish Core From Flank, or Producing From Undeveloped

A form-letter offer sent to every mineral owner in a county, using the same rate regardless of whether the tract sits in core McKenzie County or flank Divide County, or whether it's producing or undeveloped, is a sign the buyer hasn't looked closely at your specific situation. Real pricing varies with these factors, sometimes significantly, and an offer that ignores them entirely is more likely built to catch owners who don't know to ask.

Ask directly: how did you arrive at this number for our specific tract? A buyer with a real process will have an answer that references your decimal interest, your county's play position, or your production history. One without a real process usually won't.

How we'd Check Any Offer, Including Our Own

Pull your own trailing royalty statements if you have them, or check your county's oil and gas activity if you don't, and get a second number from another buyer before deciding. Comparing two independently priced offers tells you more about fairness than anything else, and it costs you nothing but a little patience.

Language That Sounds Reassuring but Says Nothing

Phrases promising a locked-in outcome, an investment with no downside, or a fixed high value regardless of your specific tract are worth treating as a warning sign rather than a selling point. Mineral value is inherently tied to commodity prices and well performance, both of which move, and no honest buyer can promise an outcome disconnected from those realities. When we explain a number, we'd rather describe the range and what's driving it than make a promise we can't actually back up.

Similarly, be cautious of offers framed entirely around what a buyer claims other owners in your area accepted. Even neighboring tracts differ in decimal interest, decline stage, and lease terms, so a claim about what someone else took isn't verifiable and isn't a substitute for your own tract's actual data.